A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
